zzBuffett’s MidAmerican Expands West With $5.6 Billion Deal

Warren Buffett’s energy unit will consolidate a western expansion begun in 2005 with its planned $5.6 billion acquisition of Nevada’s largest utility, potentially reigniting takeovers in the sector.

The MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. subsidiary of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) will become the largest U.S. utility owner based on customer accounts that will swell to 8.4 million with its purchase of Las Vegas-based NV Energy Inc. (NVE), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Berkshire unit will pay $23.75 per share, 23 percent more than NV Energy’s $19.28 closing price yesterday, the companies said in a statement.

Enlarge image

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett has been boosting investments in capital-intensive businesses as he seeks to allocate funds at his Omaha, Nebraska-based company, which had a cash pile of $49.1 billion as of March 31.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett has been boosting investments in capital-intensive businesses as he seeks to allocate funds at his Omaha, Nebraska-based company, which had a cash pile of $49.1 billion as of March 31. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

1:16

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., the power-production unit at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., agreed to buy NV Energy Inc. for about $5.6 billion in cash to expand in Nevada. (Source: Bloomberg)

Sponsored Links
	Refinance Now 2.53% FIXED No Points & Virtually Zero Costs. No SSN rqd. Easy Pr... Mortgage.lendgo.com
	Better Help Desk Solution Progressive Companies Use Desk.com to Deliver Custome... www.desk.com
	Better Customer Support ... Turbo Charge Your Customer Support With Our New Prici... www.desk.com
Buy a link

Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer and chairman, has been boosting investments in capital-intensive businesses as he seeks to allocate funds at his Omaha, Nebraska-based company, which had a cash pile of $49.1 billion as of March 31. MidAmerican will have assets of about $66 billion after the completion of the deal, which is expected in the first quarter of next year, according to the statement.

“We’re investing in a management team we believe in, we’re investing in quality assets,” said MidAmerican CEO Greg Abel.

“We see, fundamentally, there will be underlying economic growth in Nevada,” he said.

NV Energy CEO Michael W. Yackira has improved state regulatory relationships and significantly increased free cash flow for shareholders, Andrew Bischof, a Chicago-based analyst for Morningstar Inc., said in an interview.

More Deals

MidAmerican’s move came after a month-long decline in utility stocks that continued yesterday, pulling NV Energy shares down 2.4% at the close in New York.

“As valuations come off, you might see a little bit more merger and acquisition activity,” Bischof said.

Since climbing to a five-year high, Standard and Poor’s utility stocks have fallen almost 10 percent this month on investor concerns that rising interest rates will make their dividends less attractive.

The purchase is the largest announced acquisition of a U.S. regulated electricity company since Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) bought Progress Energy Inc. for $17.8 billion last July. The industry earlier saw a wave of consolidation as investors anticipated $1.5 trillion to be spent on infrastructure upgrades from 2010 through 2030 as generation shifts from coal power to cleaner natural gas and renewable energy. Transactions paused in the past year as valuations rose and regulators stepped up scrutiny of deals such as Duke’s on behalf of consumers.

Desirable Targets

MidAmerican’s transaction “has the potential to revive interest in the utility group when a Berkshire-affiliated entity is looking to make a deal,” Paul Patterson, a New York City-based utilities analyst with Glenrock Associates, said in a phone interview.

The Berkshire unit had targeted renewable energy deals after deeming utility valuations too high, Chief Financial Officer Patrick Goodman said in a Nov. 13 interview. “As a cash buyer, we will be looking at utilities if pricing comes in a bit,” he said.

NV Energy may have become a more desirable target as its shares declined 11 percent after reaching a high this year of $21.63 on April 30, Patterson said.

“The utility industry has been relatively overvalued, so there has been a little bit of a correction,” said Morningstar’s Bischof.

Earlier this week, Teco Energy Inc. (TE), a Tampa, Florida-based utility, said it agreed to buy New Mexico Gas Co. from Continental Energy Systems LLC for $950 million.

Morningstar has viewed MidAmerican as a potential acquirer because Buffett has a favorable view of the industry, Bischof said.

Staying Rich

Buffett, 82, has said that businesses like utilities have earnings power even under adverse economic conditions and can provide fair returns on capital as long as they make investments in infrastructure to meet customer needs. Owning utilities is “not a way to get rich,” he said at a meeting of U.S. state regulators in 2006. “It’s a way to stay rich.”

MidAmerican reported net income of $444 million in the first quarter, 17 percent more than a year earlier.

NV Energy has been boosting its purchases of electricity from solar plants and wind farms to meet a state requirement to get one-fourth of its power from renewable sources by 2025. The company also has been investing in building gas-fired plants and transmission lines that will boost cash flow, Bischof said.

Rebounding Economy

Nevada’s economy has shown signs of a rebound after a six-year slump. Residential construction permits rose 47 percent last year after declining since 2005. NV Energy said earlier this month first-quarter net income rose 76 percent to $21.5 million compared with a year ago.

“Buffett was looking for a strong regulated utility with a strong cash flow and NV Energy fits the bill for that,” Bischof said.

The purchase will need the approval of the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, as well as NV Energy shareholders, according to a regulatory filing. It’s not likely to face an extended review because NV Energy operates in only one state, Glenrock’s Patterson said.

When the NV transaction is completed, “We will have the opportunity to combine MidAmerican’s expertise in renewable energy with Nevada’s vast renewable resources for the benefit of our customers and our state,” Yackira, NV Energy’s CEO, said in yesterday’s statement.

Western Expansion

Berkshire agreed in 2005 to acquire PacifiCorp, which provides electricity and gas to 1.8 million homes and businesses in four states bordering Nevada: California, Oregon, Idaho and Utah, as well as Wyoming and Washington. Its MidAmerican Energy utility has electricity and gas customers in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota.

Duke Energy, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, is currently the largest U.S. utility owner with about 7.8 million customers.

NV Energy, with 1.3 million electric and gas customers, was formed in 1999 by the merger of Nevada Power and Sierra Pacific Resources. The company traces its roots back to 1906, when a predecessor was the first to provide electricity to Las Vegas and the first to distribute power from the Hoover Dam.

The company has gained 12 percent in the past year, trailing the 20 percent climb for the Standard & Poor’s Midcap Utilities Index. The announcement was made after the market close. NV Energy shares rose 23 percent in after-hours trading.

Lazard Ltd. provided financial advice to NV Energy and Sidley Austin LLP, Woodburn and Wedge, and Hogan Lovells were its legal advisers. Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP provided legal advice to MidAmerican.

To contact the reporters on this story: Noah Buhayar in New York at nbuhayar@bloomberg.net; Mark Chediak in San Francisco at mchediak@bloomberg.net; Julie Johnsson in Chicago at jjohnsson@bloomberg.net

zz 美股期权交易基础

最近很想把做股票期权（Option）的积累的认识，想法写下来，希望帮助那些想要进行Option交易的和刚刚入门的人。也希望有高手能够交流分享，指导。

2 小时前 上传

下载附件 (33.01 KB)

 

首先需要解决几个基本问题：

（1）什么是股票期权 （Option）

股票期权是一种建立在买方和卖方之间合约或叫约定。这种合约给了买方在特定价格（Strike Price）买入或卖出一只股票的权利。当然这种合约是有期限的。有可能是一个星期，也有可能是一个月，几个月或是一年两年。当合约到期日那天，持有股票期权的买方有权选择执行股票期权或是让股票期权作废。当然在合约到期日之前，持有股票期权的买方还可以卖出所持有的股票期权，卖出股票期权的卖方也可以买回期权平仓。

（2）有几种股票期权

两种。看涨期权又叫Call和看跌期权又叫Put

（3）股票期权怎么交易

股票期权的买卖单位是以一个合约为单位的（contract）。一个合约代表了100股股票的权利。如果我买了2个一个月后到期的股票ABC的看涨期权（Call）合约，表示一个月后股票期权到期日时，我有权买入200股ABC。

如果股票期权价格为$1每股，买入1个合约的成本是：$1 x 100 = $100

从交易方法来看，可以有4种方法：

买入看涨期权（Long Call）：看涨股票时，一般可以买入看涨期权
买入看跌期权（Long Put）：看跌股票时，一般可以买入看跌期权

卖出看涨期权（Short Call）：看跌股票时，可以卖出看涨期权。高风险
卖出看跌期权（Short Put）：看涨股票时，可以卖出看跌期权。高风险

例：如有一只股票ABC 现在价格$10每股，我花$1每股买入了一个月后到期的$12的看涨期权（Call）,一个月后ABC涨到了$15每股，我会选择执行我的看涨期权。这样我可以花$12每股买入ABC（至于谁会卖给我，我不用管），而ABC的市场价格已经是$15每股了，所以马上卖出ABC的话，仍然可以获利$2每股。为什么是$2每股，而不是$3每股呢？$12每股是我买股票的成本，$1每股是我买看涨期权的成本，所以总成本是$13每股。当然如果一个月后ABC跌到了$9每股, 我就会选择让看涨期权（Call）作废。这样我只损失了买入看涨期权（Call）时的$1每股。（例子中所有交易没有考虑手续费。）

现在我们逐一的详细看看每一个方法。

(一)Long Calls：买入看涨期权

买入看涨期权意味着将来某个时间点你有权在特定的价格买入这支股票。
例：假如你在2011年12月29日，以每合约$15.15的价格买入了GOOG的2012年1月的行权价为$650的看涨期权。2011年12月29日时GOOG的价格是$636，你的操作是：”buy to open GOOG-JAN-2012-$650-Calls”。代表你看涨GOOG，认为在2012年1月的行权日前GOOG会涨到$650以上。

记住你买的不是股票，是期权，是权利。那你都能怎么行使你的权利呢？

卖出
执行
过期失效

卖出：在行权日前随着GOOG股票价格上涨，看涨期权价格也在上涨。你可以选择卖出你的看涨期权而获利。
执行：如果到了行权日GOOG股票价格达到$700,你选择执行你的看涨期权：你可以以$650买入GOOG的股票。
过期失效：如果到了行权日GOOG股票低于$650,你可以选择让看涨期权过期失效，你会损失每合约$15.15。

(二）Long Puts ：买入看跌期权

买入看跌期权意味着将来某个时间点你有权在特定的价格卖入这支股票。

你可以对你买入的看跌期权做下面操作：

卖出
执行
过期失效

卖出：在行权日之前随着股票价格下跌，看跌期权的价格会上涨，你可以选择卖出看跌期权而获利。
执行：如果到了行权日股票下跌的很多，远远低于你的看跌期权的行权价时，你选择执行你的看跌期权。即在行权价格卖出股票获利。
过期失效：如果到了行权日股票上涨了价格高于你的看跌期权的行权价时,你选择让看跌期权过期失效，你会损失买入看跌期权时所花的钱。

上面两种方法相类似，风险是一定的。即，最多损失的是你用来买期权的钱。

但下面两种方法则是高风险的，在有些情况下会产生巨额损失。


（三）Short Calls ：卖出看涨期权

就像卖空股票似的，你卖出看涨期权，你不是花钱去买，而一开始是收钱。假如ABC这支股票的价格是$40，你以每合约$2.00，卖出了10个下个月的$45的看涨期权。（你是把下月行权日时以$45买入1000股ABC的权利卖出了。卖给谁你不需要管）这样你将收入$2000。别高兴太早，因为这$2000还不一定是你的呢。当下个月的行权日时，ABC的股价没有超过$45时，这$2000才属于你。但如果ABC的股价超过$45，你就需要被迫执行你卖出的看涨期权—（拥有你卖出的这个权利的人要求你）以$45卖出1000股ABC股票。如果在你的帐号没有1000股ABC的股票，你就必须从市场上以市场价买入1000股ABC，再卖出。这是最大的风险，因为在市场上ABC的股价已经超过了$45，可能是$55,可能是$145，也有可能是天价。当然行权日前在ABC股价上涨接近$45时，你可以选择平仓–买回卖出的看跌期权。这种情况的损失根据具体情况再分析。没有任何保护的卖出看涨期权，风险可能是你无法承受的大。

（四）Short Puts ：卖出看跌期权

同理你卖出看跌期权， 一开始是收钱的，但这钱还不一定是你的。还是以ABC股票为例，股价$40, 你以每合约$2.00，卖出了10个下个月的$35的看跌期权。这样你将收入$2000。（你是把下月行权日时以$35卖出1000股ABC的权利卖出了。）同样这$2000到下月行权日前暂时属于你。当下个月行权日时ABC没有跌过$35时，这$2000才是你的。如果ABC跌过了$35，你就需要被迫执行你卖出的看跌期权—（拥有你卖出的这个权利的人要求你）以$35买入1000股ABC股票，即使市场上的ABC已经一钱不值。没有任何保护的卖出看跌期权，最大风险就是你要按执行价格买入股票。

（4）为什么交易股票期权

杠杆化自有资金

减小风险

提高投资回报

我们再来看个例子。以微软公司的股票为例，如果现在微软公司的股票为$30每股，如果我想买入1000股，我需要花$30 x 1000 = $30,000。当微软公司的股票上涨到$60每股时，我可以挣100%（$30,000）。但如果微软公司的股票跌到$20每股，我将损失33%（$10,000）。好了来看看如果使用股票期权的话，1个合约代表100股，我买入10个合约，就相当于1000股股票。微软公司股票的行权价格$30的看涨期权为$5每股的话，$5 x 100 x 10 = $5,000。也就是说我花$5,000，拥有了在$30买入1000股微软公司股票的权利。如果微软公司股票涨到$40每股时，行权价格$30的看涨期权大概为$10每股。股票只涨了33%，但我的投资挣了100%。如果微软公司股票跌到$20每股，我最多就损失$5,000（而不是$10,000）。

从上面例子看：

杠杆化自有资金:我用$5,000操作了需要$30,000才能买入的股票。

减小风险：股价下跌33%，我损失的是$5,000而不是$10,000。

提高投资回报：股价上涨33%，我的投资回报就会是100%。

当然Option交易不是只有优点的，和股票相比，有一些不好的地方：

（1）没有分红，没有投票权：买了股票就是股东了，可以享受分红等权利。但Option的持有者不是股东。

（2）有时间限制：Option是一定时间内的权利，有的是一个月，有的是一年，还有一周的，所以一旦时间到了，权利就会失效。所以不能买了就放那里不管。

zz GeoInvesting Confirms China Housing And Land Development Operations

On April 4, 2013 we alerted GeoInvesting members that we were taking a closer look at China Housing and Land Development Inc. (CHLN) from a bullish point of view.

China Housing is a leading residential developer of apartments in the Peoples Republic of China. The company focuses on fast growing Tier II and Tier III cities in western China, and primarily in Xi'an City, Shaanxi province and Ankang City, Shaanxi province. CHLN aims to capitalize on opportunities created by the demand from first-time home buyers and first-time up-graders in western China. The majority of its apartments range in size from 70 square meters to 120 square meters; Demand for apartments of this size is considered to be more stable when compared to other residential real estate markets in western China.



Referencing SEC filings and confirmed by our investigators, the company has developed 11 projects since its establishment. As of the 2012 fourth quarter the company claims that it has sold or is currently in the process of selling apartments from the following projects:

• Junjing I, II, and III
• Puhua Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III
• Park Plaza project
• Ankang project

The company also claims that the following residential projects are in planning stages for which construction will begin between the second quarter of 2013 and third quarter of 2018.

• Puhua Phase IV
• Golden Bay
• Textile City

Through an analysis of the CHLN's PRC filings (SAIC documents) we were able to verify that there appears to be no problems with the Company's corporate structure.

We are still in the process of determining the appropriate modeling assumptions to use to value CHLN. However, If we compare CHLN to China Hgs Real Estate (HGSH) it becomes evident that CHLN is hands down the better value proposition.

CHLN and HGSH are located in the same area, Shaanxi province, and are around 150 miles apart from one another. CHLN is located in Xi'an city which has a population of 8.5 million. HGSH is located in Hanzhong City which has a population of 3.4 million. Yet the difference in valuation metrics is staggering.

	CHLN	HGSH
EV/Sales	1.3	11.4
EV/Adj. EBITDA	7.4	32.4
P/E (non-GAAP)	4.3	32.8
P/B	0.5	5.4

Our motivation behind this article is to substantiate the claims that CHLN has made regarding its past and current projects and evaluate general market conditions. Our initial findings have been positive, reveal that CHLN could be more insulated than other developers from government policies aimed at preventing a real estate bubble and indicate that its 2013 first quarter results should show substantial growth. We cannot comment on the how sales will shake out on a quarterly basis past the 2013 first quarter due to the nature of how CHLN recognizes revenues, but we can confirm that the company's potential backlog is large.

A. Initial on-the-ground due diligence reveals that the claims CHLN has made in its SEC filings appear to be accurate.

We visited the Junjing projects I, II, and III and the Puhua Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III projects. We also visited the Park Plaza project and the Ankuang project. The results of our findings are as follows:

1. Junjing projects I, II, and III

• As disclosed by CHLN, Junjing I, II, and III are next to each other.
• We confirmed that Junjing I, II, and III have been sold out.
• The sales office for Junjing I, II, and III has already been removed.
• For information about Junjing I, II, III, investors can follow this link - http://xa.focus.cn/votehouse/144.html

2. Puhua Phases I, II, and III

• As disclosed by CHLN, Puhua Phases I, II, and III are next to each other.
• Puhua Phase I has been sold out, while Phase II is nearly sold out. Phase III is expected to contribute to revenues in 2013.
• The selling prices and pricing trends over the past several years pertaining to Puhua I and Puhua II is approximately in line with CHLN's disclosed sale prices and pricing trends. No price trend data on Puhua III exists because as of the 2012 fourth quarter the company had not yet recognized associated sales. http://qianshuiwanph.soufun.com/house/3610699702/fangjia.html
• The disclosed selling schedule for Puhua Phases I, II, and III is approximately in line with the disclosed revenue recognition and selling schedule found in CHLN's SEC files. Currently, as disclosed in SEC filings, the majority of Puhua revenues will come from Puhua Phase III, since Phase I is sold out and Phase II was substantially sold out as of the 2012 fourth quarter. http://qianshuiwanph.soufun.com/house/3610699702/dongtai.htm
• We visited Puhua Phases I, II, and III. We also talked to its sales representative who confirmed the selling prices and schedules disclosed by CHLN.

3. Park Plaza

• Park Plaza is currently for sale. Its marketing information can be found at this link - http://xinqingfangxx.soufun.com/
• We visited the Park Plaza's sales office and also talked to sales representatives who confirmed the details of the Park Plaza Project.

4. Ankang Project

• Pre-sales for the Ankang Project started in the fourth of 2012. Its marketing information can be found here - http://www.0915home.com/newhouse2/nh_detail.php?HID=43
• We visited the Ankang project's sales office and also talked to its sales representative who confirmed the details of the Ankang Project.

5. We have confirmed that CHLN is in the planning stages with regards to the Puhua Phase IV, Golden Bay and Textile City projects are still in the early stages of planning.

B. Pictures

1. Puhua I, II, and III

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

-

2. Park Plaza

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

-

3. Ankang

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

-

C. Real estate market healthy through the 2013 first quarter: In the first quarter of 2013, the residential housing market (sales) increased more than 20% in Xi'an City, where CHLN projects are located (with the exception of its Ankang project).

Based on total sales data in Xi'an City, residential house sales in Xi'an City increased 21.9% in the 2013 first quarter, compared to the same quarter of 2012.

Heading into 2013, CHLN revenues and pre-sales from Xi'an City will come from Puhua Phase II, Puhua Phase III, and Park Plaza. Based upon our visit to CHLN's sales office in April 2013 and the market trends in the first quarter of 2013, it is plausible that CHLN can achieve its first quarter revenue guidance and experience an increase in pre-sales.

"Total recognized revenue for the 2013 first quarter is expected to reach $28 million to $30 million, compared to $60.1 million in the 2012 fourth quarter and $23.5 million in the first quarter of 2012."

D. Regulatory environment is good for CHLN

The Chinese government issued a new real estate controlling policy (GuoWuTiao) in February 2013 and Xi'an City implemented its own set of policies in April 2013. http://news.sz.soufun.com/2013-04-19/9938722.htm

A key factor that favors CHLN is that Xi'an City is not permitted to sell property to anyone who already owns two properties. However,

"CHLN is focusing primarily on the demand from first time home buyers and first time up-graders". (Source: 2012 10-K)

Thus, it is feasible that CHLN's business will be less influenced by the new real estate controlling policy compared to the real estate industry as a whole in China.

Furthermore, according to the new real estate controlling policy, a 20% income tax shall be levied on capital gains from the sale of property. This policy should reduce the amount of housing supply available from current homeowners, meaning that an increasing number of first time home buyers will purchase newly built rather than existing residential homes. This tax policy will also result in higher prices of pre-owned homes as sellers raise selling prices to adjust for the tax. Thus, new construction will be more affordable, especially to first time buyers. Following these developments, the prices of newly built housing prices in Xi'an City increased 0.52% from March 2013 to April 2013.

http://news.95191.com/detail/30852.html

Conclusion

Based upon our on-the-ground due diligence, we can begin to trust some facets of the CHLN story and conclude that the company should report strong growth in the first quarter of 2013 as the residential housing market (sales) in Xi'an City grew 21% over the same quarter in 2012.

The real estate market in Xi'an City may be influenced by the new real estate controlling policy (GuoWuTiao). However, as CHLN's primary focus is on first-time home buyers and first time up-graders, we do not think that CHLN's business will be adversely influenced by the government's policy.

zz 成为交易员，你需要做哪些准备？

bruce.bower:你想要成为一个交易员。
这可能有很多原因。你想要在庞大的头寸之间游刃有余，赚取数不清的金钱。你想要与最好的对手竞争并且击败他们。你想要体验那种与市场共舞的兴奋感。你想要接受智力上的挑战，去权衡全球经济走势、下注宏观经济趋势。
成为交易员的基本目标是赚钱。显然没人会说：“我想成为交易员，这样我就能输掉无数的钱”。事实上，如果你想要成为交易员，这是明确的要求。总的来说，交易是关于承担可控的金融风险来牟利的工作。这一前提对每个交易员都是一致的。从这种意义上来说，成为交易员最好的准备就是要熟悉这些准则。
除了赚钱外，你赋予交易员这一职业的意义有的与交易本身没有关系。类似“智力挑战”或“竞争”这样的词与市场本身几乎没有联系，对你自己的意义更大。你喜欢这些是因为他们能满足你特定的需求和渴望。这些词描绘了对你非常重要的东西，而你要在市场里去寻找它的体现。市场是一面镜子，反映的是你自身的个性。要想成为交易员，你需要理解自己的特质，以及想要从市场获得什么。
普遍原则
如上文所写，交易是在市场里承担可控的金融风险来牟利的工作。盈利所需的时间段多种多样，可以是短短5分钟功夫，也可以多年持有一个股票上的头寸。这就是交易与投资的区别。
想要成为交易员，在四个最重要的方面需要做好准备：
1. 市场知识
要做交易，你必须要了解市场。最最基本的，你必须要了解现有的市场以及其中最主要的一些，股市、债市、商品、期货等等。因为你将要在其中的一部分进行交易，你需要了解市场里有哪些工具，这些工具又是如何运作的。你所在的市场何时开盘和收盘？保证金要求是怎样的？交易的最小规模是多少？
举个例子，如果你想要在外汇市场交易，那么明白这个市场是24小时运作是非常关键的。这是汇市与其他主要市场的关键区别所在。而了解汇市的保证金要求很少且没有一个中央交易所的信息可能更让人放心。要成为一个成功的交易员，明白所有这些信息是基本。
不同市场中有一些部分是共通的，而你需要了解这些。一些基本的概念像买入价和卖出价；订单类型如市价订单与限价订单；手续费；清算；保证金。这些就像市场的下水道，并不闪耀但对其正常运作非常关键。你需要对这些部分如何运作了如指掌，确保自己不会在这些地方栽跟头。
除此以外，你需要明白是什么在驱动不同的市场。在每个市场，都有一些关键的消息或数据会影响市场。美国国债市场关心经济增长、通胀和美联储。它对气候和公司盈利的兴趣不大。而股市则受市场对企业盈利和业务状况的看法影响巨大。像农产品期货这样的规模较小的市场有自己的驱动因素和细微之处。如果你想要在这些市场做交易，你就需要熟悉这些，这样你才能理解那些是重要的，而哪些不是。
要点：对于你所在的市场，即使最微小的细节你也需要学习。
2. 数学能力与概率
交易无疑需要数学技巧。你需要习惯与数字打交道，能够快速准确的做所有的基本运算，这是无法绕开的。你的生活将永远由这些组成，比如以16元买入1500股，17元卖出，扣掉手续费8元，然后算出自己的利润。下订单、计算交易执行成本、计算收益，每个领域都需要数学能力。你需要习惯与数字打交道，基础的数字能力是最低的要求。
在交易中，你还需要理解概率。你不是试图去预测未来，而是试图去在对自己风险收益比最有利的地方下聪明的、可能性最大的赌注。你需要对在市场各种情形下可能发生的事情及每种事情后果的可能性有很好的理解。接着，你想要计算出市场会给予你怎样的结果，即根据不同结果计算你可能会赚或亏多少。接着，你比较那些结果，看看是不是能有一个正收益。又比如，假设一个黄金期货的头寸各有50%的机会盈利或亏损，但如果盈利了，预期能够赚40元，要不就会亏损10元。实际上你就在1:1的赌注上获得了一个4:1的收益结构，因此你从统计意义上的正收益是很大的。
接下来看看不同的交易风格是如何使用这种逻辑的。超短线交易（Scalping）有90%的盈利或持平的机率，平均每次盈利少于半点。但由于剩余10%的亏损概率至会损失3个点，你最终仍然获取收益。相反，10次长期趋势跟踪交易中可能有8次会有小幅亏损，但剩余2次盈利的交易可能每次都能盈利25%以上。每个盈利的交易风格都有自身的特点，但他们的共同点都是风险收益率的概率计算。
要点：学习和理解数学与概率
3. 跟踪金融新闻
跟踪新闻起码显示出对市场的强烈兴趣。如果你对一个主题感兴趣，你会希望保持跟踪并了解更多。总之，对好莱坞感兴趣的会去读名人八卦；精算师会读保险专业杂志；体育迷会读虎扑。
好处很明显：你会知道正在发生的事情，了解那些大玩家是谁以及驱动市场的主要事件。有些事情是每个人都在关注的，就像重大政治事件和货币政策，你必须起码对此要熟悉。对于最大的市场，如政府债券，原油，股指等等，对于你所在的市场，你需要知道是那些事件和消息在驱动市场。
还有其他的好处。有些时候，大众意见会变得过于乐观或悲观，你可以在媒体报道中发现这些。报道的标题会反映市场参与者的极端情绪。很多情况下，一些大幅的波动会在情绪极端倒向一边时发生，因为每个人已经站在交易的一遍，而没有剩下的人来进一步推高了。作为市场参与者，当这种情况出现时，观察这一周期是非常有用的，因为你可以借此培养对事情何时过度发展的感觉。
要点：追踪新闻
4 个人理财
如果你准备成为交易员，你需要理解个人理财的基本知识。因为交易包含风险与回报，你需要确保自己没有承担过多风险并且对任何可能的下行风险有足够的应对能力。那句老话“永远不要冒你无法承担的风险”是非常有智慧的。
如果你开始以自己的资金进行交易，无论是兼职或全职，此时最大的关注点就是确保你交易所用的资金是你有能力亏损的。
要点：不要冒你无法承担的风险，留足缓冲余地。
风格因人而异
上文讲述的是适用每个交易员的基本原则。接下来，关键的就是做好适合自己的准备工作。最简单的准备方法就是搞清楚，除了赚钱之外，交易对你个人意味着什么，你希望从中得到什么。为了能拥有一个让人满意和有成就感的职业生涯，你需要有一个财务理由之外的动力，否则你永远无法坚持做成功所必须的努力。此外，你对市场的特殊兴趣反映的是对你非常重要的东西。
对于每个交易员，总有一些东西吸引他们进入市场。这并不是指市场本身。不断闪动的报价和快节奏是市场的特点，但这些并不是吸引交易员入市的原因。对于交易员，关于交易的整体感觉中总有一些东西吸引了他们，激发了他们的兴趣。换句话说，他们从市场经历中获得了一些感情上的价值。
比如，一个高水平的大学运动员可能希望继续拥有竞争的感觉，他们视交易为满足这一需求的方式。对于那些志在学术的人，交易可能是一个非常让人享受和刺激的智利测试。最后，一个扑克玩家可能视交易为一种赌博并获胜的方式。对于每个未来的交易员，总有市场的某一面吸引了他们。
你需要了解自己。为了在交易领域获得成功，未来的交易员需要理解市场对自己的“兴趣点”是什么，并围绕这个建立自己的交易风格和市场选择。问你自己一些问题，这些问题将决定最适合你的市场。

你是否喜欢肾上腺素爆发和竞争的快感？还是更倾向于考虑周详的决策？
你是学术性或研究型？还是更愿意按天性来下注？
你是否擅长数学或计算还是更愿意做定性判断？
你希望从交易中获得什么，成为下一个索罗斯？还在在家工作的自由？还是额外的收入来源？

回答这些问题能帮你确定在市场里是什么在驱动你，即你希望从交易中获得怎样的情感收获和经历。但这只是起点，一旦你知道是什么在驱动你，你能够开始考虑怎样的市场适合你交易；你应该采取怎样的风格；除了基本知识外，你还需要为交易做哪些准备。这是为成为一个成功的交易员做的最好的准备，理解哪些市场，策略和方式最适合你。一旦你掌握了自己的驱动因素以及自己擅长什么，接着你就可以将能够最大激励自己和最适合自己的方式组合起来。
下面一些性格特质和兴趣与明显更适合的交易风格，包括：

渴望竞争、高压力下的决策：日内交易和短期头寸交易
研究型、希望接受智力挑战：以研究为基础的长期持仓
对政治或宏观经济运作感兴趣的：你应该更多操作外汇、政府债券等等，基本面方式更适合你。
希望更多了解个体公司：建立在基本面研究基础上的个股交易。基本面策略有多种，因此这一框架下有各种类型
赌博成瘾，只爱下注的：你不应从事交易。

以上清单并不完整，但他能给你一个更好的理解这个问题的方式。一旦你了解自己，你就可以分辨出自己作为交易员的优势和兴趣点。知道这些，你就可以准备最适合你的市场和交易策略。

zz Investors can’t beat the machines

It has always been difficult for investors to consistently beat index funds. It has been nearly impossible lately.

And there’s a double whammy: The small number of advisers who outperform the market rarely can keep doing so.

One big culprit, experts say: the rise of sophisticated computer trading programs.

Consider the 51 advisers out of more than 200 on the Hulbert Financial Digest’s list who beat the market in the decade-long period that ended April 30, 2012, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 Total Market index, including reinvested dividends.

Of that group, just 11 — or 22% — have outperformed the overall market since then. On average over the last year, they have lagged the Wilshire index by 6.2 percentage points.

That’s no better than the percentage that applies to all advisers, regardless of past performance. In other words, going with a recent market beater doesn’t increase your odds of future success.

• Breaking-news alerts: Get free email alerts the instant news breaks

/conga/story/misc/alerts_sixwide.html 239164

“Before the era of computer-dominated trading, it was slightly easier to identify winning advisers in advance, because you could more easily understand and evaluate what they were doing,” says Lawrence G. Tint, chairman of Quantal, a risk-management firm for institutional investors, and former U.S. CEO of Barclays Global Investors.

Getty Images

Going with a recent market beater doesn’t increase your odds of future success.

One major reason why machines are winning is our inability to process lots of financial data, which is getting more complex and voluminous every year.

Terrance Odean, a finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, has extensively studied the behavior and performance of individual traders. He points out that there used to be another human being on the other side of the trade when an individual bought or sold a stock. “Now it’s a supercomputer you’re competing with,” says Odean.

“Individuals are no longer playing against Grandmasters; they’re playing against Deep Blue,” he says, referring to the famous battle in the 1990s between chess’s Grandmasters and International Business Machines’ /quotes/zigman/230066/quotes/nls/ibm IBM +0.61%  supercomputer Deep Blue. Individual investors “will almost certainly lose.”

Another reason traders are losing out to machines is their general inability to assess complex data. They look at the same set of facts on different occasions and reach different conclusions, and they unwittingly let their emotions dominate their intellect.

Daniel Kahneman, professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University and the 2002 Nobel laureate in economics, has widely studied this phenomenon. In his 2011 book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” he reviewed more than 200 academic studies over the past five decades that analyzed head-to-head contests between human beings and mechanical algorithms.

HEDGE FUNDS: SPECIAL REPORT
• Ideas from Sohn conference are often clunkers
• Roubini warns of market crash at SALT
• Novogratz at SALT: Nikkei, S&P look good
• Grundlach: Apple 'not expensive at all'

/conga/story/misc/hedge-funds.html 262137

Kahneman reports that man consistently loses out to machine in a wide variety of pursuits, ranging from medicine to economics, business, psychology and even things like predicting the winners of U.S. football games and judging the quality of Bordeaux wine. In each of these domains, he reports, “the accuracy of experts was matched or exceeded by a simple algorithm.”

Betting on the pros

Some traders hold out the hope that they can beat the market by following the lead of an investment adviser. But it is close to impossible to identify these advisers in advance, according to Tint.

“The average reader of The Wall Street Journal simply won’t be able to identify these market-beating advisers,” he says. After all, “repeated studies have shown that even the best institutional investors have been unable to identify them in advance.”

Tint adds that there is an above-average chance that an awful adviser will continue to perform terribly. This creates the mathematical illusion that there also is persistence among high-ranking managers and that we can beat an index fund by following one of those top performers, he argues. But all it really tells us is that it’s a good idea to avoid a terrible adviser.

Click to Play

Regulators Urged to Beef Up Insider Trading Rules

Former SEC commissioner has urged the government to beef up rules that regulate corporate executives’ stock sales.

This persistence at the bottom of the rankings is well-illustrated by the adviser on the Hulbert Financial Digest’s monitored list who, one year ago, was at the very bottom for trailing 10-year performance: Charlie Buck’s Situational Strategies. Sure enough, it has been a bottom performer in the 12 months since then, falling 33% vs. a 17% gain for the overall stock market. The newsletter’s publishers didn’t respond to requests for comment.

There’s another reason why it is so hard for top-performing advisers to beat the index over the long term, says Tint, even when their numbers were powered by genuine ability rather than sheer luck.

Once the adviser turns in impressive performance, lots of new money flocks to his fund, diluting the ability to continue performing well.

That phenomenon appears to be what contributed to the downfall of legendary fund manager Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust. At the end of 2005, Miller had one of the hottest hands in U.S. mutual-fund history, beating the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index for each of the previous 15 years. His fund attracted lots of new money, and he found it impossible to continue his remarkable record.

From 2006 to 2011, he lagged the market in all but one year, and in 2012 he resigned as manager of that fund.

Miller, in an interview, says it is “mathematically true” that there is a portfolio size “beyond which it is difficult, if not impossible, to beat the market.” Assets under management in Legg Mason Value Trust grew markedly over the years.

The fund now run by Miller, called Legg Mason Opportunity Trust, has less than 10% of the assets under management that his prior fund did at its peak, and was one of the best-performing mutual fund last year, with a return of 40%.

Miller says he thinks the primary cause of his hot hand turning cool was simply “bad decision making,” and that, in addition to good decision making on his part, luck played a big role in his fund being ranked so highly last year.

What about Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who has beaten the market by a large margin over the past four decades? Isn’t he an exception?

It is certainly possible that he has been more skillful than his competitors. But with a portfolio that is now so huge, Buffett will have a more difficult time in the future picking stocks that will perform better than an index fund, Miller says. Buffett himself has said that he expects Berkshire’s future returns to be only slightly better than the S&P 500’s.

Tint says he believes much of the value that Berkshire has added in recent years has derived not from Buffett’s stock-picking skills but from the huge amount of cash at his disposal and his negotiating skills, which combine to give him an enormous advantage in managing his company and extracting very favorable terms from those who need that cash and cannot easily get it elsewhere.

The trading trap

The implication of all this for individual investors is straightforward: Don’t trade. Short-term trading has become so dominated by Wall Street’s computers that individuals—and professional managers—almost certainly will lose out to them over time. The obvious alternative, experts say, is to buy and hold diversified index funds with very low expenses.

The portfolio that is most widely diversified, of course, reflects all publicly traded stocks, both in the U.S. and abroad. One exchange-traded fund that provides such total-market exposure is the iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund /quotes/zigman/109740/quotes/nls/acwi ACWI +0.19% , which is benchmarked to MSCI’s All-Country World Index. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.34%, or $34 per $10,000 traded.

For U.S. equities, one low-cost way to get total-market exposure is through the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF /quotes/zigman/1477965/quotes/nls/vti VTI +0.44% , which has an annual expense ratio of just 0.05%, or $5 per $10,000 invested. Almost as diversified is a fund that mimics the S&P 500. A low-cost vehicle for exposure to that index is the iShares Core S&P ETF /quotes/zigman/259938/quotes/nls/ivv IVV +0.31% , with an expense ratio of 0.07%, or $7 per $10,000 invested.

If you’re interested in developed countries’ stocks, a low-cost choice is the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF /quotes/zigman/289988/quotes/nls/efa EFA +0.11% , which is benchmarked to MSCI’s Europe Australasia and Far-East index. Its expense ratio is 0.34%, or $34 per $10,000 invested.

The advice to trade as little as possible and be diversified also applies to fixed-income investing, since bond investors are at a disadvantage against machines in this arena as well. For fixed-income exposure in the U.S., a low-cost option is the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF /quotes/zigman/1505212/quotes/nls/bnd BND -0.25% , with an expense ratio of 0.1%, or $1 per $10,000 invested.

For exposure to international bonds, be on the lookout for a fund that Vanguard says it is close to launching: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund, which the firm has indicated will have an expense ratio of 0.2%—which, if so, would be among the lowest in the category.

Low-cost index funds are also an obvious choice for getting diversified exposure to other asset classes. iShares offers an ETF that is benchmarked to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index: the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust, with an expense ratio of 0.75%, or $75 per $10,000 invested. To invest just in gold, one popular ETF is the iShares Gold Trust /quotes/zigman/41663/quotes/nls/gld GLD -0.86% , with an expense ratio of 0.25%, or $25 per $10,000 invested.

A new partnership

Is there still a role for man in a world where he so consistently loses to machines?

Yes, according to Brad Barber, a finance professor at the University of California, Davis, who has extensively studied performance and behavior of individual traders. There are some things that computers either can’t do or can’t do well, such as determining whether one of the myriad patterns that emerge from data crunching makes sense.

“If you don’t understand the reason for a pattern, you’re vulnerable to following a mindless algorithm that is quite likely to perform poorly,” Barber says.

Computers are also ill-suited to thinking outside the box and devising new hypotheses and models of what might be able to beat the market in the future, Tint points out. He envisions a man-and-machine partnership in which we use computers to rigorously test our hypotheses and trade on those that survive statistical muster.

Of course, most people don’t have the computer hardware and extensive databases required to take advantage of what computers have to offer.

And even professionals who do have access to such resources need to first recognize the limitations of their decision-making abilities. Until they know what they’re not well suited to do, they are likely to perform poorly — even if they have powerful computers at their disposal. That’s because they are likely to exaggerate what they bring to the table and play down the role that computers can play.

Odean says some of the poorest performances in his studies were turned in by traders who were the most confident of their abilities. This led them to trade even more often and incur even more risk.

This often leads them to do precisely the wrong thing. A series of academic studies over the past decade compared stocks that traders buy with those that they sell, both in the U.S. as well as in some foreign countries.

The average stock traders sell goes on to outperform the average stock they buy, he says.

• Need to Know: Crucial gut checks before the U.S. markets open

zz Economic week ahead: Chinese data to dominate

A slew of data from China and central bank decisions in the UK, Australia and Kenya will likely dominate this week's economic news

North America
The US economic calendar is light this week, with consumer credit, weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories figures the only noteworthy releases on tap.
Consensus is that Tuesday's consumer credit data will show that credit rose by $15-billion in March, down from an $18.1-billion surge in the previous month.
February's jump, driven largely by a significant gain in student loans, was the largest monthly increase in credit in almost 13 years.
Attention will turn to initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories data on Thursday. Jobless claims fell by 18 000 to 324 000 in the week ended April 27, a new recovery low. Economists expect this week's claims to climb to 335 000.
Markets expect Thursday's wholesale inventories figures to show that inventories rose 0.4% in March, following a 0.3% decline in February.
Economists monitor activity at the wholesale level as an indicator of consumer trends.
Beyond these economic data releases, investors will focus on a few of the remaining corporate earnings reports scheduled for the week ahead.
Disney and News Corp. are the big names of the week.
Analysts expect Disney to report earnings per share (EPS) of 76 cents on revenue of $10.5-billion for the second quarter of its 2013 fiscal year, up from 58 cents per share on revenue of $9.6-billion in the same period last year.
News Corp. is expected to report EPS of 36 cents on revenue of $9.1-billion for the third quarter of its 2013 fiscal year, compared with 37 cents per share on revenue of $8.4-billion last year.
Europe
On Monday, the Eurozone's composite and services sector purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) are likely to continue to point to continuing economic trouble for the continent.
Economists expect both measures to remain below the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction.
On Wednesday, Queen Elizabeth II will deliver her annual speech to parliament, setting out the coalition government's legislative programme, and German officials will release March's industrial output numbers.
Markets expect that, on a monthly basis, Europe's largest economy and manufacturing powerhouse posted zero growth in output in March, following a stronger than expected 0.5% growth in February.
On Thursday, attention will turn to the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.
Following last week's news that the UK's services sector grew at its strongest pace in eight months last month, officials are widely expected to leave the bank's base rate on hold at 0.5% and maintain the size of the bank's quantitative easing programme at £375-million.
On Friday, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will gather in London for two-days of meetings that will focus on means of combatting tax evasion.
Asia
Chinese trade, inflation, money supply and lending data will take centre stage in Asia this week. Markets expect Wednesday's trade data to show that exports rose 14.8% and imports rose 15.5%, year on year, in April.
As a result, the country's trade balance is expected to have risen to a $23-billion surplus last month, following March's surprise $884-million deficit.
On Thursday, attention will shift to China's latest consumer and producer inflation figures.
Markets expect both sets of numbers to paint a tame inflation picture for the world's second largest economy.
Economists expect April's consumer price index (CPI) data to show that consumer prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, only slightly higher than the 2.1% recorded in March and well below the government's 4.0% comfort level.
Last month, prices at the factory gate fell about 2.0% from a year earlier, slightly more than the 1.9% fall witnessed in the previous month.
On Friday, consensus is that year on year M2 money supply growth slowed slightly to 15.5% growth in April from 15.7% in March. New yuan lendIng likely fell from 1.1-trillion yuan to 768-billion yuan during the same period.
Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest rates decision on Tuesday. Most economists believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the bank's benchmark rate on hold at 3.0%.
Money markets, however, have priced in a 55% chance that policymakers will cut the overnight rate by 25-basis points to a new record low.
Africa
Kenya's central bank will announce its latest rates decision on Monday.
In the face of upside inflation risks, largely attributable to higher food prices, markets expect policymakers to leave the central bank rate on hold at 9.5% for the second straight meeting.
On Tuesday, attention will turn to Egypt's release of official reserves figures.
Political and economic turmoil in the wake of a popular uprising that ousted former President Hosni Mubarak two years ago has scared foreign investors away from Egypt, raised the country's deficit and drained foreign currency reserves needed to pay for food and fuel imports.
Egypt's reserves have plunged by more than half since January 2011, when they stood at around $36-billion, to less than $14-billion in March 2013.
Officials have said that they are hoping to raise reserve levels to $16-billion by the end of the current fiscal year in June.
On Thursday, South Africa, the continent's largest economy, will release last month's mining and manufacturing production figures.
Consensus is that manufacturing output fell 0.2% in March from a year earlier following February's worse than expected 2.9% drop.
South Africa's latest PMI results indicate that weak domestic and external demand has reduced demand for new orders, pointing to reduced manufacturing output over the coming months.
Elsewhere on the continent, Uganda will release March's M3 money supply and foreign reserves data and Tanzania is expected to release gross domestic product figures.
Kenya will do the same this week or the next.

zz Doug Kass fails to convince Buffett to sell Berkshire shares, for now

Doug Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, came out swinging at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s annual meeting on Saturday when he got the microphone.
A Berkshire bear, Kass pointed out that the company is now so big, it has to hunt “elephants” rather than “gazelles.” With the  company in danger of becoming an index fund because of its sheer size, Kass asked whether it was time for Berkshire BRKA +1.25%   BRKB +1.71%  to change, the Wall Street Journal reported.
As expected, Buffett parried the blow deftly, admitting that there is no question that Berkshire won’t grow as much as in the past. But, he added, it will still continue to generate tremendous value, according to the New York Times.
Charlie Munger then chimed in with, “I can make the short-sellers argument even better than he did.”
Buffett then signaled the end of the first round by declaring: “You haven’t convinced me to sell the stock yet, Doug, keep trying.”
In his second go at the microphone, Kass questioned whether Buffett’s successor will continue to have the advantages that  Buffett enjoyed, to which the 82-year-old chairman of Berkshire responded that  his successor will have access to the funds that will supplant his name and reputation, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Noting his investments in Goldman Sachs, General Electric and Bank of America were all made in times of crisis, Buffett said, “Berkshire is the 800 number when there is panic in the market.”
“I think when you come to a day when the Dow has fallen 1,000 points a day for a couple days and the tide has gone out and you find out who has been swimming naked, those naked swimmers will call Berkshire. When that happens and I’m not around, it will become an even more Berkshire brand,” he said.
Kass, who is short on Berkshire stock, was invited to the meeting by Buffett in March after answering the Oracle of Omaha’s call in Berkshire’s latest shareholder letter for a money manager with a negative view of the stock “to spice things up.”